World | India
Uncertainty prevails ahead of Uttar Pradesh vote
Seven-phase polling begins today in the testing ground for national parties
- By Ajay Jha,Chief Correspondent
- Published: 00:00 February 8, 2012
- Image Credit: AP
- Bahujan Samaj Party workers seek blessings of party supremo and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati as she leaves an election rally at Ambedkar Nagar near Lucknow on February 2.
New Delhi: There is an old saying in Indian politics: You win Uttar Pradesh and you rule India.
India's most populous state — with more than 200 million people that makes Uttar Pradesh home to 16 per cent of India's more than 1.2 billion population — has always dominated Indian politics. Moreover, it elects 80 of 543 lawmakers of the Lok Sabha, the lower chamber of India's bicameral Parliament, which is the maximum any Indian state elects.
Not surprising then that out of India's 13 prime ministers, eight were from Uttar Pradesh.
This equation over the years, however, has changed. The two major national parties, namely, the Congress party and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have been ruling the country for the past 14 years now without being in power in Uttar Pradesh.
Uttar Pradesh, which in the past was the testing ground for national parties, has now become the breeding ground for regional parties with regional political outfits like the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) ruling the roost.
If India's ruling Congress party walked into political oblivion after forfeiting power in the 1989 state polls, its arch-rival BJP, the principal opposition party, has been pushed to the margin since it lost power in the state in 2002. Both major national parties have witnessed a constant decline in their seats in the state assembly and their overall voting percentage.
However, with the fast-emerging trend of Indian voters yet again preferring national parties over regional parties as also the fact that the next general elections are barely two years away, the focus has once against shifted to Uttar Pradesh. The state will elect its new legislative assembly in polling staged in seven phases starting today and ending on March 3.
While it is more or less clear that both the main parties may fall well short of the majority, any improvement in their position will be a boost for the 2014 parliamentary elections.
Interestingly, the one-party rule in the country ended with the Congress party losing power at the centre as well as in Uttar Pradesh in 1989. Since then India has been under the rule of coalition governments while Uttar Pradesh for the first time surprised pollsters by giving power to the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which emerged the clear winner by bagging 207 seats in the 403-member assembly in 2007.
However, the indication this time is that the state is headed for a hung assembly.
This possible scenario has given rise to speculation about different political permutations in the post-poll scenario. The situation on the ground is so confusing that no pollster or political party is daring to claim victory of any one entity.
Determining factor
The emerging possible scenarios are that either the Samajwadi Party comes back to power with the support of the Congress party or the incumbent ruling party BSP forms the government yet again with the support of its erstwhile and now estranged ally BJP. All that the pollsters say and even politicians in private agree is that Uttar Pradesh is headed for a close four-cornered contest and predicting the winner will be foolhardy. Much will depend on which way the Muslims, backward classes and Dalit voters vote.
Muslims constitute more than 18 per cent of Uttar Pradesh voters, which is higher than the national average, and play a determining role in at least 87 of the 403 assembly constituencies while they influence the outcome in nearly 150 constituencies.
The Muslims in the past have tended to vote as a monolithic group. While in the past they voted for the Congress party, they shifted their loyalties to the Samajwadi Party led by Mulayam Singh Yadav after the Congress party lost its appeal, especially after 1992 when the Babri Masjid was demolished by Hindu fanatics at Ayodhya while the Congress party was in power at the centre.
Since the Muslims tended to vote for any party or candidate capable of defeating the pro-Hindu BJP, the Samajwadi Party invariably benefited from it with the Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav earning the soubriquet of Maulana Singh Yadav due to his pro-Muslim stance.
Although the Shahi Imam of Delhi's historic Jama Masjid, Maulana Ahmad Bukhari, has already exhorted Muslims to support the Samajwadi Party, it is not sure if they will heed his advice since, like elsewhere, Uttar Pradesh Muslims have also started demanding development, education and job opportunities. Mulayam started his campaigning on the wrong foot by promising unemployment doles as well as monetary compensation to rape victims, instead of promising them job opportunities and providing women a safe and secure environment.
Unsure support
The Congress party, which prospered the most on Muslim support during the 2009 general elections — helping it win 21 parliamentary seats from the state and enabling it to finish second behind the Samajwadi Party that won 23 seats — is once again trying to woo Muslim voters by promising the backward Muslims a 4.5 per cent quota from the present 27 per cent quota in government jobs for the other backward classes.
If the Congress party is trying to wean away Muslim voters from the Samajwadi Party, the BJP is busy wooing the higher caste Hindu voters, especially the all-important Brahmin and Thakur voters who had tended to vote for the BSP following a promise of participation in the government based on their strengths. The higher caste Hindus have once again started drifting away from the BSP while Muslims have started showing the tendency of voting for even a non-Muslim candidate.
At a glance
- Dates of election February 8, 11, 15, 19 23, 28 and March 3
- Counting of votes March 6
- Main parties in the fray Bahujan Samaj Party, Samajwadi Party, Congress, Rashtriya Lok Dal, Bharatiya Janata Party.
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