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Survey predicts Left front's election triumph in Kerala
The opposition Left Democratic Front (LDF) leaders in Kerala are upbeat after a media survey predicted 93-103 seats for them in the 140-seat assembly to which polling will take place in three phases from April 22.
- By Akhel Mathew, Correspondent
- Published: 23:32 May 3, 2009
Thiruvananthapuram: The opposition Left Democratic Front (LDF) leaders in Kerala are upbeat after a media survey predicted 93-103 seats for them in the 140-seat assembly to which polling will take place in three phases from April 22.
The LDF, however, has not officially reacted to the survey by The Hindu, a leading English daily and television channel CNN-IBN.
The survey, the results of which were released on Wednesday, points to an LDF sweep which may overshadow even the 100-seat victory of the ruling United Democratic Front (UDF) had in the 2001 polls.
According to the survey, while the LDF is poised to win between 93 and 103 seats, the UDF share will fall to as low as 39-45 seats, while other parties and independents may win a maximum of 2 seats.
The survey was conducted in Kerala by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, and the results show that the popular sentiment in Kerala has not changed much since the LDF sweep in the 2003 parliament elections when it won 18 of the 20 seats.
Then the Indian Federal Democratic Party, which was an ally of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance at the Centre, had won one seat and the Indian Union Muslim League managed the consolation win for the UDF.
If the LDF does secure 103 seats as indicated by the survey, it will be the biggest victory for the Left since 1967.
Interestingly, the general mood in the state among the electorate is hugely in favour of the LDF, in a much greater intensity than what the numbers thrown up by the survey suggest. The survey gives the LDF 49 per cent of the votes as against 43 per cent for the UDF.
In most states of India, a 6 per cent difference of votes may be considered marginal but in Kerala it is substantial considering that winning margins are traditionally small in the state.
In fact, since 1977 no winning front has had a 6 per cent higher vote share than the rival alliance.
Only twice has any front won more than 100 seats in Kerala the Congress-led front in 1977 won 111 seats and the Left-led combination won 117 seats in 1967.
Interestingly, the survey also points to opposition leader V.S. Achuthanandan being perceived as the chief minister by most number of respondents.
While 36 per cent perceive Achuthanandan as taking the top job, only 2 per cent see his party colleague Paloli Mohammad Kutty at that chair.
The finding comes even as the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPM) that heads the LDF has not revealed who its chief ministerial candidate would be, should the LDF come to power.
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