World | India
Poll forecasts: Slim chance of clear winner in India elections
India's Congress party-led coalition could beat the Hindu-nationalist opposition in a general election but the balance of power may lie with small, regional parties, a national poll said on Saturday.
- Reuters
- Published: 23:06 February 21, 2009
New Delhi: India's Congress party-led coalition could beat the Hindu-nationalist opposition in a general election but the balance of power may lie with small, regional parties, a national poll said on Saturday.
The ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, headed by the left-of-centre Congress party, is predicted to win 36.6 per cent of the votes, marginally up from 36.5 per cent in the last elections in 2004, the CNN-IBN poll said.
The opposition National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), will see its share of the vote drop to 29.4 per cent from 35.9 per cent.
That would mean the winner would need to forge post-election alliances. In the last 2004 election, Congress won power by securing the backing of leftist parties, which helped lead to the stagnation of economic reforms.
"It's going to be a messy situation yet again. The smaller parties, the regional parties will again play a very important role," Vinay Tewari, the executive editor of the CNN-IBN said.
"We'll most likely see another very, very hard round of bargaining pre-poll and post-poll."
The survey, carried out by CNN-IBN news channel and the Centre for Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), sampled around 20,000 people in every major state in the country.
Congress is expected to perform better than five years ago, the poll said, which may improve its bargaining power as it forges post-election alliances, but the BJP's share of the vote, without its allies, will stay almost the same.
Both parties will likely be let down by dwindling support for some of their current allies, leaving the door open for regional parties outside the UPA and the NDA.
For example the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which has its powerbase among the Dalits in India's most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, will see its share of the vote increase to 5.8 per cent from 5.3 per cent.
The BSP's controversial leader, Mayawati, has been tipped as a possible kingmaker or prime minister if the UPA or NDA fail to form a government on their own.
War of words: Modi hits out at Gandhi
Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday criticised Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, asking him not to comment on the state's economic initiatives.
The Congress responded by saying that Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was pro-corporate and had little concern for masses.
"Some people come from Delhi and give us advice on the Tata Nano project without full information," Modi said in Surat.
He was reacting to Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi's criticism of the Gujarat government. On February 14, Gandhi had said the Modi government had doled out special favours to Tata Motors for shifting its small car Nano project from West Bengal to Sanand.
- IANS
News Editor's choice
-
Kuwait condemns Houla massacre
Arab League urged to put end to oppression of Syrian people
-
Road crashes main cause of child death in UAE
Death rate among children in car accidents in the UAE is three times higher than global average
-
Last minute ID rush is on
Expatriates in Dubai have thronged typing centres and Emirates ID registration offices to meet the May 31 registration deadline
