David Cameron faces defeat on gay marriage

London: David Cameron was facing a Commons defeat on gay marriage on Monday night that could cost the exchequer £4 billion (Dh22.28 billion).

At least 100 Tory members of parliament were expected to join forces with Labour and the Lib Dems to back an amendment allowing heterosexual couples to have civil partnerships.

Sources said the prime minister was “very concerned” about losing the vote, which he believes would undermine the institution of marriage.

In another grim day for Cameron, the row intensified over Conservative co-chairman Lord Feldman’s alleged labelling of Tory activists as “mad, swivel-eyed loons” even as Tory grandee Geoffrey Howe said Cameron was “running scared” on Europe. On another front, the governor of the Bank of England said the government’s mortgage guarantee scheme risked creating a sub-prime loans crisis. Amid those troubles, grassroots Tories warned of a “crisis of conservatism”, saying the prime minister was badly out of touch with the party membership over gay marriage.

Opening up civil partnerships to all would be a far bigger move than gay marriage itself, which affects only relatively small numbers.

The amendment could delay implementation of the entire legislative package for two years — meaning the first gay weddings would be delayed until after the next election.

It would also open up the tax advantages of civil partnerships to 2.8 million cohabiting couples — with costly implications for a number of government departments. Increased spouses’ rights to public sector pensions alone could land the taxpayer with a bill of between £3 billion and £4 billion. Inheritance tax receipts could be significantly reduced.

Rebel Tory MPs believe the Treasury could even demand the entire the Marriage (Same Sex Couples) Bill is pulled. “There is a sense we could be in trouble on this,” a government source said on Sunday night.

MPs will have a free vote on the issue and Labour indicated the entire shadow cabinet and most MPs were expected to back extending civil partnerships to heterosexual couples as a matter of principle.

Lib Dem policy has long called for equality on civil partnerships and sources said many of the party’s MPs will back the amendment. Culture secretary Maria Miller attempted to head off the vote last week by offering to hold a review of civil partnerships five years after gay marriage was legalised.

But supporters of the change say this does not go far enough. Labour on Sunday night said ministers had provided no evidence to justify their claims that the Bill will be delayed or that the amendment will cost lots of money. A party source said: “It would be outrageous of the government to use this issue as a reason to delay or kill the Bill. Is that what is going on?”

More than 150 Tory MPs are expected to defy the prime minister on a separate amendment, which would mean that teachers would be exempt from prosecution if they taught gay marriage was wrong, and would provide immunity for registrars who refused to conduct gay ceremonies.

But the amendment is not supported by the Labour and Lib Dem leadership and is likely to be rejected.

Senior Tory activists warned yesterday that gay marriage was making it “virtually impossible” for the party to win the next election. In a letter to the prime minister, more than 30 present and former local party chairmen warned that Cameron’s backing for a change in the law had led to voters switching their support to UKIP.

The letter to Cameron was organised by the Grassroots Conservative group, whose chairman, Bob Woollard, said: “This dilution and unravelling of marriage has demotivated many ordinary loyal Conservative Party members and has undermined their years of hard work for something they believed in. It makes winning the next election virtually impossible.”

Hundreds of Muslim leaders have also attacked the gay marriage plans in an open letter to Cameron, Labour leader Ed Miliband and Liberal Democrat leader and deputy prime minister, Nick Clegg.

More than 500 community leaders and imams signed the letter which stated “marriage is a sacred contract between a man and a woman that cannot be redefined”.