Region | Palestinian Territories
Peace negotiations could suffer
Negotiations with Palestinians and Syria could suffer setback if hawkish leader takes over.
- By Richard Boudreaux, Los Angeles Times-Washington Post News Service
- Published: 00:04 August 1, 2008
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Olmert puts peacemaking in peril
Olmert puts peace in peril
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Israel's Livni pushes for Palestinian peace deal despite domestic uncertainty
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Israeli police to question Olmert again over bribery charges
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Israeli Prime Minister to step down
Israeli Prime Minister to step down from post in two months
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Few hopes for Palestine peace
Few hopes for Palestine peace
Occupied Jerusalem: Israel entered a months-long season of political uncertainty on Wednesday as Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's decision to resign in September cast the country into a leadership struggle that could complicate efforts to make peace with its neighbours.
Weakened by corruption scandals, Olmert announced that he would not run in his centrist Kadima Party's September 17 leadership primary and would step down afterwards to give the new party chairman a chance to form a different government.
That means Israel, which has been negotiating with two Palestinian factions and Syria while grappling with how to confront Iran's nuclear ambitions, will be without effective leadership at least until October.
The power vacuum could last as late as February, overlapping the change of US presidential administrations, if a new Israeli government cannot be formed without general elections.
Olmert's decision was not unexpected. A shrewd, affable political survivor who once called himself "indestructible", the 62-year-old leader had battled longer than expected to cling to his job, even as he worked to engage some of Israel's adversaries in peace talks.
Fierce debate
Those peace initiatives are likely to undergo fierce debate in the race to succeed him.
The leading candidates to head his party are Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, Israel's chief negotiator with the Palestinian Authority, and Shaul Mofaz, a more hawkish former defense minister.
Former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who leads in polls as Israel's most popular candidate, has voiced strong reservations about Israel's peace initiatives.
At stake are US-backed negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority over terms for a future Palestinian state. Israel is also talking indirectly with Hamas and with Syria, through Turkish mediators, about a peace treaty.
Israel's succession struggle also comes amid sensitive discussions among its military and civilian leaders over how to confront what they believe is Iran's rush to develop a nuclear weapon.
Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, also a former prime minister, told US officials in Washington this week that Israel will not rule out military action against Iran in the coming months.
Olmert will serve as a caretaker prime minister until his successor is chosen. He is likely to lean more heavily on his defense minister and Israel's military leaders in decisions about Iran, Israeli analysts said.
The prime minister said Wednesday he would not "ease up" on peace efforts with Syria and the Palestinians "as long as I remain in office".
Uncertainty over Israel's political direction, however, could make it hard for him to close deals that have eluded Israeli leaders for decades or win their approval by parliament.
American and Palestinian officials insisted that Olmert's departure would not slow the US-backed peace talks. The latest round, held Wednesday in Washington, brought together Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Livni and chief Palestinian negotiator Ahmad Qurai.
"The Israelis will work out their own politics," U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters. "We're going to look forward to working with all responsible Israeli leaders in the government, whether it's this government or some future government."
But few Israelis or Palestinians ever put much hope in the US-sponsored negotiations, which have shown little visible progress since they began in November at Annapolis, Md. Serious differences remain over borders of a future Palestinian state and the future of Palestinian refugees. And Olmert said this week there was no chance of achieving an accord this year on rival claims to occupied Jerusalem.
Aaron David Miller, a former US negotiator in the Middle East, said Olmert's departure would reduce the prospects of a high-risk initiative to close the gap between the two sides.
"No one believes that with this added uncertainty the chance of a real negotiation leading to binding agreements is possible," he said.
The Israeli leader's motives in pursuing negotiations have been viewed with growing suspicion as corruption allegations mounted against him and his popularity crashed.
Many Israelis and Arabs believed Olmert's overtures "were meant to give an impression that he deserves to stay in office so he can make peace," said Gassan Khateeb, a former Palestinian Authority Cabinet official.
Olmert was in political trouble almost from the start of his tenure, pursued by police investigators looking into earlier corruption cases and damaged by an inconclusive 34-day war against Lebanon's Hezbollah guerrillas two summers ago that many Israelis took as a defeat.
He took over in January 2006 after Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's stroke and was elected to a four-year term two months later. He had served in public office since 1973, as member of parliament, mayor of occupied Jerusalem, and trade minister in Sharon's government.
Police are investigating several cases in which Olmert allegedly used the mayor's job and his Cabinet position for personal gain or to benefit cronies.
He has not been indicted. But pressure on him to resign has mounted since May, when police opened a bribery investigation alleging that Olmert took hundreds of thousands of dollars, much of it in cash, from businessman Morris Talanksy.
Talansky's later testimony detailing cash payments proved to be a turning point. Olmert's rivals in his own party turned against him and called a leadership primary. The date of the contest was agreed upon this week.
As his reputation skidded away, he got into spats with Livni and Barak, his two top lieutenants, who urged him publicly to step down. In parliament, Olmert "looked on with a miserable face as his ministers voted against him, his coalition crumbled and the government became powerless," said Zevulun Orlev, a lawmaker.
In an evening televised address, the prime minister said he was stepping down to mount a full-time legal battle that he said will prove his innocence.
He lashed out at his accusers, who leaked details of the investigations by the police, the attorney general and the state prosecutor.
"I was forced to defend myself against relentless attacks from self-appointed ‘fighters for justice' who sought to depose me from my position, when the ends sanctified all the means," he said, appearing angry while reading from a prepared text.
The prime minister's announcement set in motion a process for choosing his successor.
If the Kadima Party leader chosen in September can form a multiparty coalition with a majority of the existing 120-member parliament, Israel could have a new government in October or early November.
If not, parliament would be dissolved and general elections called 90 days later, a process that would postpone the formation of a new government until February.
Candidates
Four candidates have already begun campaigning for Olmert's job as party leader.
Mofaz, the current transport minister, has been touting his army experience, especially his role as a commander in putting down a violent Palestinian uprising early in this decade.
Livni, a former intelligence agent and now the most powerful woman in Israel, noted in a radio interview this week that she serves in Olmert's "security Cabinet", a close circle of advisors. "Security is more than commanding an army," she said.
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