Region | Palestinian Territories
Olmert in line of fire
The Winograd report expected to severely indict the Israeli Prime Minister's handling of the Lebanon war is due out on Wednesday.
- Agencies
- Published: 00:09 January 30, 2008
- Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert addresses Israeli soldiers during a visit to an army base in Zikim, just outside the northern Gaza Strip on Tuesday.
- Image Credit: Reuters
Occupied Jerusalem: Nearly 18 months after Israel's inconclusive war in Lebanon, that battlefield is still confronting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert: The final report on the government's handling of the war is due out Wednesday, and questions about his political survival are swirling.
The final conclusions of the Winograd Commission appointed to investigate the handling of the 34-day war could have deep implications for Olmert - as well as his efforts to make peace with the Palestinians.
With US encouragement, Olmert and the Palestinians hope to reach a final peace deal by the end of the year. But depending on the commission's report on Wednesday, Olmert's government may not survive long enough or be strong enough to reach that ambitious goal.
The reluctance of coalition partners to face early elections helped Olmert to beat back the demands for his resignation after the release of a scathing interim report by the commission last April. This time, however, Labor Party leader Ehud Barak, now Israel's defence minister, is under pressure to deliver on his promise to replace Olmert or advance elections after the full report is published.
If Barak pulls Labor's 19-member faction out of the coalition, Olmert would no longer have a parliamentary majority and could be forced to call an election. His coalition now controls 67 of parliament's 120 seats.
"All eyes are on Ehud Barak," Israeli political commentator Hanan Crystal told Israel Radio. "He needs to make the first move." The Lebanon war, which began July 12, 2006, when Hezbollah fighters killed three Israeli soldiers and captured two others, is widely seen as a failure in Israel.
Olmert entered the war with wall-to-wall support from the Israeli public, but saw his popularity plunge after the campaign failed to achieve his two declared goals — winning the soldiers' release and crushing Hezbollah.
Despite a heavy Israeli air offensive, Hezbollah rained nearly 4,000 rockets on northern Israel during the fighting. Reports from the battlefield of confused orders, inadequate supplies and poor training compounded the Israeli people's criticisms of their prime minister.
More than 1,000 Lebanese and nearly 160 Israeli soldiers and civilians died in the war. Among the dead were more than 30 soldiers killed in a widely criticised ground offensive launched shortly before a UN ceasefire went into effect. That offensive is likely to be a focus of Wednesday's report by the special commission, headed by retired judge Eliyahu Winograd.
Olmert has repeatedly said he would not step down after the government-appointed war inquiry issues its final findings.
Olmert confidants also say he rejects proposals by some Labor Party officials to hold elections in early 2009, more than a year ahead of schedule.
The committee does not have the authority to remove Olmert or anyone else from power. But its findings could have an impact on public opinion.
"The interim report of this commission had already demanded that the prime minister assume his responsibilities for the failures of the Lebanon war," Eitan Cabel, secretary general of the centre-left Labour, told public radio.
"Olmert supporters invoke all sorts of arguments [for him to remain in power], like the need to continue the peace process with the Palestinians or the battle against Hamas or Iran, but nothing justifies him remaining in command," he said.
Although the final Winograd report is not expected to contain a direct call for Olmert to resign, an official closely involved in the commission's work said that "the report will be as harsh as the previous one".
Families of those killed in the conflict, reservists and politicians have renewed calls for Olmert to step down.
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