Siniora unlikely to face opposition

Dubai: Lebanese analysts and observers have said that while the opposition might not like the reappointment of Fouad Siniora as the Prime Minister, it was unlikely to take any serious action to express its displeasure.

Siniora was announced as the Prime Minister of Lebanon on Wednesday after the new president, Michel Sulaiman, held consultations with parliamentary blocs, prompting an angry response from the opposition.

George Nassif, an analyst at the daily Al Nahar, said the parliamentary majority chose Siniora instead of Sa'ad Hariri, who was also tipped for the position, because of Hariri's strong anti-Syrian stand as well as his closeness to the international tribunal on his father Rafik Hariri's assassination.

"It was preferred that the prime minister not be close to the tribunal so that he is not assumed to be biased in the decisions he takes in that position.

"The opposition is certainly not going to be comfortable with the nomination of Siniora but whether they will officially oppose it is an open question," he said.

No confrontation

Nassif said it was unlikely that the opposition would openly confront Siniora's nomination if President Sulaiman approves it. "They will want to respect the decision of the President. It is in no one's interest to confront him".

Siniora, a Sunni and close ally of slain former premier Rafik Hariri, has been the prime minister since 2005.

Rami Khouri, Editor-at-Large at the Daily Star, said that the opposition was unlikely to confront his nomination since it opposed Siniora "politically, not personally".

"Since the political situation has changed now, it should not be a big deal [for the opposition]," he said. In a phone interview from Beirut, former finance minister Georges Corm told Gulf News that the opposition had made a "big mistake" in not asking for a neutral and consensual prime minister from the start of the crisis.

"The main problem is that the executive power is massively concentrated in the hands of the prime minister as per the Taif agreement. What would have been ideal after Doha would have been to have a consensual prime minister," he said.

Siniora's nomination, he added, was "not a positive omen, [as] he was partly responsible for the political crisis of the past three years" for continuing to function the government after the resignation of Shiite ministers, despite the insistence of the then president Emile Lahoud that the government was unconstitutional.

"One of the largest communities in Lebanon was no longer represented. The constitution clearly stipulates that every community should be represented in the government," he said.

External pressure

The New TV channel attributed the decision to bring Siniora back to "US and Saudi pressure".

Nassif, however, said that while the West preferred Siniora as the prime minister, Saudi Arabia's first choice was Sa'ad Hariri. "The West is familiar with Siniora since he has experience and good contacts there," he said.

He added that although unlikely, it was not impossible for Sulaiman to recommend another name for prime minister, in effect rejecting the nomination of Siniora.

Corm, however, said that was not constitutionally possible. "The President of the republic has no power whatsoever," he said, adding that the "residual powers that the constitution has left in the hands of the president" have proven to be ineffective.

What do you think of parliaments decision? Do you think there Doha agreement would hold up in face of the re-instatement of Siniora? Why? Tell us at letter2editor@gulfnews.com or fill in the form below to send your comments.

The most important thing at this stage is that Lebanon has passed the risk of a civil war outbreak, however brining in Siniora or any other "Neutral" name is not the real issue, forming the cabinet as per the Doha agreement with all the parties rightly represented is going to be the bigger challenge.
Rami
Abu Dhabi,UAE
Posted: May 29, 2008, 10:01