Mousa faces tough task to end Lebanon crisis

Beirut: Efforts by Arab League chief Amr Mousa this week to resolve Lebanon's political crisis will be complicated by the influence of foreign powers on the country's rival factions, analysts say.

Despite shuttling among the opposing political leaders last week, he had little to show except to say some progress had been made.

He is expected to return early this week to try to end the standoff between the pro-Western government and the opposition, led by pro-Syrian Hezbollah.

Demonstrators have been holding a mass protest in Beirut since December 1, threatening to topple the government unless it gives the opposition a strong voice in the cabinet.

But it will be difficult for Mousa to reach a deal unless Syria and Iran on the one hand, and the United States and Saudi Arabia on the other, can agree to a balance of power in Lebanon.

The government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora is backed by the United States and Saudi Arabia, which see any rise in the power of Hezbollah as enhancing Syrian and Iranian influence in the region, analysts say.

The Arab League has had little success in mediating regional disputes because of the conflicting interests of its members and Mousa, who was to visit Saudi Arabia yesterday, would have to navigate the political cross-currents in Lebanon.

Not effective

"The Arab League has not been an effective mediator because it is always under pressure from parochial interests," said Oussama Safa, head of the Lebanese Centre for Policy Studies. He said on Friday that without support from regional countries "Mousa's mission won't go anywhere".

Former prime minister Salim Al Hoss said Mousa must "obtain a clear green light for his mission ... especially from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria, and naturally the United States".

Syria and Iran, staunch backers of Hezbollah, want the militant group to have more legislative power to reflect its strength in the country, analysts say.

Syria had more influence in Lebanon until it was forced to withdraw its troops last year after the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri.

Political sources said Mousa's proposals would expand the cabinet to 30 ministers from 24, and give Siniora's ruling coalition 19 ministers and the opposition 10. One minister would be neutral.

The stumbling bloc was opposition insistence the 'neutral' minister be a close ally.