Region | Lebanon
Hezbollah eyes power shift in House
Group hopes to reverse slim majority held by the anti-Syrian alliance.
- Reuters
- Published: 23:06 June 1, 2009
- Image Credit: AP
- A girl gestures in front of Lebanese and Hezbollah flagsduring a rally.
Beirut: Lebanon's parliamentary election on June 7 is expected to be a tight contest in which Hezbollah and its allies are hoping to reverse the slim majority held by an anti-Syrian coalition that enjoys US and Saudi backing.
Even if they succeed, it won't mean they can align Lebanon starkly with the Shiite group's outside backers, Syria and Iran, given strong domestic and foreign opposition to this.
Nor will it necessarily prompt the West to cut off support for a fragile country whose sectarian power-sharing system has stymied reform despite its escape from Syria's grip after the 2005 killing of Lebanese statesman Rafik Hariri.
No reliable opinion polling exists in Lebanon, but communal voting patterns or deals among politicians have all but decided the bulk of the seats in the 128-member parliament in advance.
The sharpest electoral battles will be fought mainly among Christians, who are divided between Lebanon's two rival camps.
The anti-Syrian alliance led by Sunni politician Sa'ad Hariri mustered a majority in parliament after a 2005 election. It includes Druze chief Walid Junblatt and his former civil war Christian foes, Samir Geagea and Ameen Gemayel.
Opposing them are Shiite factions - Hezbollah, led by Hassan Nasrallah, and Amal, headed by parliament speaker Nabih Berri - allied with Christian leader Michel Aoun.
Following are possible outcomes of the vote:
Hezbollah's Nasrallah has said that if his side wins it will ask its rivals to join a national unity government. Hariri has said he would rather go into opposition, but he might change his mind under pressure from allies eager for a share in power or from US and Saudi backers keen to dilute Hezbollah influence.
In any event, Hezbollah, which is fielding only 11 candidates in the election, will have a relatively lowprofile in parliament and the cabinet.
The prime minister must be a Sunni under Lebanese rules and Hezbollah and its allies would find it hard to pick one without the approval of Hariri. Lebanese analysts say Najib Mikati, a rich businessman from the northern city of Tripoli, is a likely choice as a compromise candidate who has good ties with both Syria and Saudi Arabia.
Fouad Siniora, who is now prime minister, is viewed in the West as a reliable ally with financial savvy, but stands no chance of retaining his post if Hariri's opponents prevail.
If Hariri and his allies keep the upper hand in parliament, they are likely to accept the need to include their foes in a unity government, with enough cabinet posts to grant them veto power over major issues.
Any attempt to govern alone would risk plunging Lebanon into a repeat of the prolonged political deadlock that lasted from November 2006 until street battles in May 2008.
Hariri says he has not yet decided whether to become prime minister himself if his bloc wins. He might anyway discard Siniora, viewed as divisive. Mikati, who was prime minister briefly in 2005, could again be a compromise choice.
If neither side wins decisively, a few independent MPs seen as loyal to President Michel Sulaiman could hold the key.
A hung parliament could lead to a more stable post-election compromise with the Maronite Christian president playing a balancing role between factions competing for his support.
Meeting: Rivals agree to keep calm
Lebanon's rival leaders agreed to maintain calm during a June 7 general election and urged supporters to peacefully accept the results of what was set to be a very tight contest.
Leaders of both camps met at the presidential palace under the auspices of President Michel Sulaiman six days before the vote and agreed to tone down the rhetoric in the final days before the vote.
"Those gathered ... call on Lebanese to carry out their electoral duty and head to voting booths calmly and responsibly, in line with the principles of freedom and democracy," a statement by the leaders said after the two-hour meeting. It urged voters to "accept the results in a civilised manner".
The leaders, who include Sa'ad Hariri, head of the parliamentary majority, and MP Mohammad Ra'ad, leader of the Hezbollah bloc, vowed to halt all campaigning and advertising 24 hours before the vote "to pave the way for calm thinking by citizens on election choices".
Lebanon plunged into its worst political crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war after the assassination of statesman Rafik Hariri in 2005. Political and sectarian tensions rose to boiling point.
More than 150 people were killed in the sectarian violence but an agreement a year ago after Hezbollah used its military might to defeat opponents in and around Beirut eased the political crisis and led to the election of President Sulaiman and the formation of a unity government.
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