Region | Lebanon
Armed confrontation or concession, government faces few choices
Lebanon's worst internal crisis since the 1975-90 civil war escalated sharply this week when the government took decisions aimed at Hezbollah that the group viewed as a declaration of war.
- Reuters
- Published: 23:56 May 9, 2008
- Image Credit: AP
- Shiite gunmen take rest as they smoke water pipes on a Beirut street Friday.
Beirut : Lebanon's worst internal crisis since the 1975-90 civil war escalated sharply this week when the government took decisions aimed at Hezbollah that the group viewed as a declaration of war.
If the impasse continues, the situation will take a turn for the worse. Here are some scenarios how the conflict may unfold.
Armed conflict
The government might refuse to give in to Hezbollah's demands. The group also refuses to back down. Lebanon then will face more confrontation.
Armed clashes between Hezbollah, backed by gunmen from allied factions, and fighters loyal to the governing coalition could continue. The strength of pro-government factions is not clear. Most analysts have ruled out the idea of a full-scale civil war because of Hezbollah's military dominance. But tensions between the sides, the depth of animosity between their followers and the ready availability of guns mean that armed clashes could go on for some time.
Hezbollah will likely maintain its grip on Beirut's roads, effectively shutting the airport. The group and its opposition allies could call on followers employed by the state to stop going to work, further weakening institutions of government.
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Hezbollah could move to take physical control of government buildings. On May 9 it forced pro-government Beirut TV off air.
But a move to storm the main government headquarters occupied by Prime Minister Fouad Siniora is seen as unlikely.
Despite its military dominance, Hezbollah is unlikely to attempt a full takeover of government in the manner that Hamas secured control of the Gaza Strip in 2007. Hezbollah's Nasrallah has said the group will not use its weapons to bring about a change of government.
Government stays
The government, whose legitimacy is disputed by the opposition, will stay in office. International backers will offer political, financial and perhaps military support. But the movement of ministers, including Siniora, is likely to remain highly restricted and the crisis will stop the Cabinet from taking major policy decisions.
Despite its May 6 statement, the Cabinet is too weak on the ground to be able to take steps towards dismantling Hezbollah's communication network.
It is possible that the government remains paralysed, and Lebanon without president.
The coalition of Lebanese leaders that back Siniora's government may give concessions to Hezbollah to rescind the May 6 decisions.
Hezbollah might then lift barricades and armed street clashes would ease.
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