Region | Iran
US turns the heat on Iran attack speculation
Less than a year ago, diplomats in the Middle East were taking bets on the likelihood of a US military attack on Iran, with some assessing it at higher than 50 per cent.
- By Roula Khalaf, Daniel Dombey and Tobias Buck, Financial Times
- Published: 00:07 July 4, 2008
London: Less than a year ago, diplomats in the Middle East were taking bets on the likelihood of a US military attack on Iran, with some assessing it at higher than 50 per cent.
Those odds subsided after the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), the co-ordinated view of US intelligence agencies, concluded in December that Iran had halted its weapons programme in 2003. But now the betting is back on.
As Tehran has accelerated its uranium enrichment programme instead of suspending it, speculation has mounted that Israel is preparing to do the job itself, possibly even before the US presidential elections in November.
Suspicions were fuelled by recent Israeli military manoeuvres over the Mediterranean, which some US officials described as target practice for an Iran strike.
Admiral Mike Mullen, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, flew to Israel over the weekend for meetings with defence officials. Although the Pentagon said little, some analysts interpreted the trip as a show of American concern over Israel's plans for Iran.
The official Israeli line remains that the government supports the diplomatic process and that Iran is a problem for the world, not only for Israel.
"If you want to do it you don't talk about it," said one Israeli official. The same official also says that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has "adamantly requested that we all shut up".
Although Israel is concerned that the diplomatic impasse over Iran will allow Tehran to master nuclear technology, the rather fragile state of the Israeli coalition and the cloud of a corruption probe hanging over Olmert suggest this is not the time to launch a major military offensive.
Warnings and incentives
Given the limited damage likely to be inflicted on Iran, and the risk of provoking a wider war at a time when oil prices are already sky high, such threats may be designed primarily to make the world nervous and toughen diplomatic resolve.
The sabre rattling has coincided with a package of incentives offered last month to Iran by world powers through Javier Solana, the European Union foreign policy chief, to encourage it to rein in its nuclear programme.
Tehran does appear to be taking the offer more seriously than diplomats anticipated. Ali Akbar Velayati, an advisor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, suggested this week that Iran could accept a proposed stage of pre-negotiations, during which it would freeze the expansion of its nuclear programme in return for the UN Security Council halting further sanctions.
Solana has yet to receive an official response to the offer. But, given the rising tensions, Iran's strategy could well be to show sufficient flexibility and thwart possible Israeli plans until a new US administration takes over.
Although Iranian officials repeatedly describe Israel as weak, it is clear that the regime is taking the risk of an offensive seriously. The head of Iran's Revolutionary Guard at the weekend spooked oil markets by declaring that retaliation for a strike could include blocking oil routes and hitting Israel with long-range missiles.
One of the main questions occupying US policy analysts is whether Washington would give a "green" light to Israel.
The United States would have to bear some of the political consequences of an Israeli bombing campaign against Iran's nuclear sites.
Political consequences
Public opinion in the region would be outraged if Israel, the only nuclear power, attacked Iran, particularly as no one has proved that Tehran is currently developing nuclear weapons.
Iranian officials have warned that an attack by Israel would be treated as if it were waged by Washington, hinting that US bases in the region might be targets of retaliation.
But US intelligence estimates suggest there is still time to deal with Iran diplomatically — Tehran would probably only be technically capable of having a weapon sometime during 2010-2015, according to NIE.
As Iran ponders its response to the diplomatic offer, some Israeli experts worry that the US and Israel are engaging in a dangerous game.
Alex Fishman, an Israeli analyst, says the US administration, which first leaked news of the Israeli military manoeuvres, has been using the threat of an Israeli attack to intimidate Iran.
"Israel's strategic military force is serving as a pawn in the hands of the administration to bring this crisis to a situation of near-explosion until someone blinks first," he wrote yesterday in Yedioth Ahronoth, an Israeli newspaper.
"The problem is that threats of this type have a dynamic of their own, and they may yet be self-fulfilling. What will happen if the Iranians don't blink?"
Share this article
Popular in News
News Editor's choice
-
Anti-terror force enlisted for Haj
Saudi Arabia's special anti-terror force has for the first time joined security forces deployed for Haj duties with the pilgrimage beginning on Wednesday
-
English to stay as medium of instruction
Lack of funding of scientific research in Arab world criticised
-
Global Village opens with a revamped layout
Four gates will have themes making it easier to find specific pavilions
