Region | Iran
Unrest could hinder Iran's goals
Iran has had an impressive run for the past decade - expanding its regional muscle through proxy militias, its expanding missile capabilities and its big brother role with Iraq's Shiites after the toppling of arch-foe Saddam Hussain.
- AP
- Published: 22:56 June 23, 2009
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Cairo: Iran has had an impressive run for the past decade - expanding its regional muscle through proxy militias, its expanding missile capabilities and its big brother role with Iraq's Shiites after the toppling of arch-foe Saddam Hussain.
But the fallout from the post-election unrest will most likely bring tougher times for Iran's ambitions beyond its borders.
"Instability inside Iran will minimise the state's capacity to project power in the region and beyond, a practice in which Iran has been very successful recently," said Amr Hamzawy, a Middle East expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington-based think tank.
It's been a steady string of advances claimed by Iran or its allies.
In 2000, Iranian-backed Hezbollah fighters proclaimed victory after Israel pulled its troops out of south Lebanon after 20-plus years of occupation. In 2003, a US-led invasion toppled Saddam's hostile regime, replacing it with a new political system dominated by Shiite parties closely linked to Iran.
Armed and trained by Iran, Hezbollah again withstood an invasion by far superior Israeli forces in the 2006 war. A year later, Iranian-backed Hamas militants seized control of the Gaza Strip, defeating forces loyal to the Western-backed Palestinian president.
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Iran's economic and political support also has enabled Syria to survive US sanctions and international isolation, thus keeping it firmly in the hardline camp opposed to US-backed rivals Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
But the ironclad image of a confident Iran - united behind its clerical leadership, has been shattered in the violent challenge to the June 12 election results that showed a landslide re-election of hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Continuing unrest would distract Iran from regional affairs, leaving Iranian proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas unable to count on Tehran's largesse and vulnerable in the face of domestic rivals.
"If there is a more serious and violent repression of protests and a consolidation of power behind the ruling bloc, then the Arab world could be facing a more entrenched and hostile regime for years to come," said Michael W. Hanna, a Middle East expert from the Century Foundation in New York.
Under normal circumstances, Iran's immediate regional policy objective now would be to revive a Shiite alliance in Iraq ahead of a January 30 general election.
This would ensure that Tehran's Iraqi allies maintain their grip on power at a time of growing uncertainty about security in view of the diminishing US military presence in the run-up to a full withdrawal of forces by the end of 2011.
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