Region | Iran
Unknown for Iran and the US
For many analysts in Iran, their country's relations with the US have reached their lowest level, and the status quo is expected to continue until a new US administration takes the lead later this year.
- By Jumana Al Tamimi, GCC & Middle East Editor
- Published: 01:22 January 15, 2008
- Image Credit: AP
- Women rally at the Isfahan Uranium Conversion Facility in support of Iran's nuclear programme.
Dubai: For many analysts in Iran, their country's relations with the US have reached their lowest level, and the status quo is expected to continue until a new US administration takes the lead later this year.
For many analysts in Washington, it is time to decide on how to deal with Tehran and its nuclear programme.
Meanwhile, Iran's Arab neighbours, despite their own concerns over growing Iranian political role and military abilities, are reading the writing on the wall. They have called for a diplomatic solution, making it clear that a military solution shouldn't be an option.
Israel, at the same time, is feeling 'nervous' and has warned Iran. No one knows how the crisis over Iran's nuclear issue will end.
While some hawks in Washington are beating the drums of war, analysts are excluding the military option - not only by the US, but also by Israel.
"Israel might strike Iran first, dragging the United States into a wider conflict. Don't rule out stupid behaviour because it seems idiotic," Bruce Riedel, former top official on the National Security Council was quoted as saying in a recently published book by veteran American journalist Barbara Slavin on Iran and the US.
"In the Middle East, it's usually what happens," he added in the book, Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies: Iran, the US and the Twisted Path to Confrontation.
"The United States and Iran appear headed, at best, for a Cold War of nerves and sanctions; at worst, to a conflict that is not a pleasant prospect, but a preemptive US attack on Iran might be even more costly," the writer added.
According to Slavin and other analysts, apart from its impact on international oil markets, any conflict would intensify tensions in other parts of the region. Anti-American sentiments will heat up and it will not be limited only to the Sunnis, but also Shiites.
The economy of Iran would also be badly hit and another human tragedy added to the long list of human suffering in the region.
"The US would be better not to isolate Iran," Slavin told Gulf News in an exclusive interview. Isolation won't work, but rather negotiations, participation and partnership, she strongly believes.
"Personally, I believe 27 years of isolating Iran has only led to strengthening the conservatives," said Haleh Esfandiari, Director, Middle East Programme at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars.
At the same time, "I really don't even see the slightest option of war," she told Gulf News. The two parties have to "sit and talk unconditionally," she added.
Dialogue impractical
However, dialogue, for Iranians, seemed impractical at present. "Iranians don't see any benefit from talking to the Bush administration since it is belligerent, arrogant and feels it is the only decision-maker in the world," said analyst Sabah Zangani.
"Iran welcomes dialogue based on cooperation and mutual respect... Iran won't sit at the negotiation table with the US unless it sees a change in the way of dealing," he added.
Since cutting their diplomatic ties in 1980, the relations between the US and Iran have been marked by suspicion and acrimony. In the past few years, tension has increased because of the Iranian nuclear programme.
While Washington and other Western capitals accuse Iran of seeking a military nuclear programme, Tehran insists its programme is of a peaceful nature.
Lately, the incident between Iranian speedboats and US warships in the strategic Strait of Hormuz boosted worries of escalating tensions. The incident came on the eve of the first regional tour of US president George W. Bush.
"Self restraint is imperative from all the players in the region," said Saudi Foreign minister Saud Al Faisal recently. Reflecting the position of the Gulf states vis-a-vis American plans, he added, "We have relations with Iran and we talk to them, and if we feel there is any danger [in the region] we will talk to them about it."
In what has been described as a rapprochement between the Arabs and the Iranians, Saudi Arabia has invited Iranian President Ahmadinejad to perform the Haj this year, while Qatar invited Ahmadinejad to take part in the GCC summit for the first time in the history of the bloc.
At the same time, Egypt opened a channel with the Iranians and both received officials from the other country.
"The American strategy [towards Iran] is failing," said Trita Parsi, author of the recently published book Treacherous Alliance: The secret Dealings of Israel, Iran and the US. Arab initiatives are a "precautionary measure... They are reading the writing on the wall."
He ruled out the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran. "I see it as unlikely. They [Israelis] are not going to be successful and they know it. It will reveal their deterrence abilities, [and] what they can and can't do," he told Gulf News. But other analysts disagree.
"If the US has decided to punish Iran, it will push Israel to do so. Israel has the ability to reach any target in Iran," said Saudi political science professor Waheed Hamza Hashim. The US in this case will not gain the enmity of the Islamic world, while Iran won't retaliate by attacking the region, he added.
Iran has cornered the US in the region, mainly in Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories. "It does not miss any chance to embarrass the US. It does not leave any exit policy to the US or leave a room for a face-saving policy [in the region]," Hashim told Gulf News.
The only way to stop the US administration from going to war with Iran would be through its public opinion, many believe.
While debate on military or diplomatic solutions continue, Musaib Al Neimie, editor-in-chief of the Iranian Al Wefaq newspaper describes the current period as the "extra time" and says if the Iranian-American relations "can't improve, they can't be worse".
The enmity towards Iran by the US is not because the nuclear issue but because of Israel, he said.
"When Iran [during the Shah years] had relations with Israel, everything was allowed. But when there is an opposition to Israel, things are different... All things are related," he added.
"To keep things at their current level is a success, in my opinion," he said, stressing that Iran can't be the first in any military confrontation.
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