Uncommon Iran campaign likely to lead to run-off next week

Dubai: Millions of Iranian voters are heading to polling stations on Friday in a tight presidential race where four strong candidates are running for the post.

A high turnout among the nearly 46 million eligible voters is expected in what many referred to as a "referendum" on Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's presidency.

"This is a very important election," said Mohammad Saleh Sedeqian, director of Tehran-based Arabic Studies Centre.

"Iran has not witnessed such elections in the past 30 years, and has not gone through this polarisation [among political forces] at the end of the first term of the president," Sedeqian added.

Since 1981, every president had served two 4-year terms - Ali Khamenei, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami. Second term elections were more "cosmetic" unlike this time, according to some analysts.

The 12-member Guardian Council, the body that has to vet candidates, has qualified four out of 475 individuals.

"What we saw this time is a desire among political circles to change. Some of these circles don't want to renew presidency for Ahmadinejad," Sedeqian explained in an interview with Gulf News in reference to the reformists' circles in Iran.

However, the conservative Ahmadinejad does not look like a man who will be easily defeated especially since he has the support of many conservatives and hardliner-controlled decision-making institutions in Iran.

The three other candidates have either pragmatic or centrist leaning programmes.

They include Mohsin Rezai, an ally of powerful moderate Rafsanjani, Mir Hussain Mousavi, an ally of leading reformist Khatami, and Mehdi Karroubi, who stands at the centre of the political spectrum.

"This election completely differs from previous ones in all aspects," Ali Nourizada, director of London-based Iranian and Arab Studies Centre said.

Television debates between candidates - organised for the first time ever - has intensified the race and charged up voters. Interviews were not limited to local media, but also Western media.

For the first time, one of Ahmadinejad's aides gave an interview to Voice Of America - the broadcasting service run by the US government.

"Mousavi doesn't only represent reformers, but he succeeded in attracting the people who turned their backs to polling boxes [in the past] by putting forward important issues for Iranians," Nourizada told Gulf News.

"The presence of Karubi in the race is also very important because he has the courage to name things by their real names," according to Nourizada.

During their election campaigns, candidates used "new language", Iranian analysts and experts pointed out. Mousavi called for gender equality while the appearance of his literate wife during his campaign is expected to guarantee him high percentage of women's votes.

Rezai pledged to appoint a woman to an important ministerial post if he wins.

Karroubi, a student of late spiritual leader Ayatollah Rouhallah Khomeini, has called for some constitutional amendments, more rights for minorities and pledged to have a Sunni minister if he wins.

The president's powers are limited in the Iranian system. Several decision-making institutions and bodies exist in Iran.

They include the 88-member Assembly of Experts, Supreme National Security Council, and the 51-member Expediency Council. However, the spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has the ultimate say in the country's issues.

But the character of the Iranian president has an impact, analysts say.

"The president has a great influence in the way he deals with implementing the decisions of other bodies," Sedeqian said.

Many believe Ahmadinejad, whose government policies, including the economic ones, has angered most Iranians, enjoys the support of Khamenei.

"The spiritual leader is a smart man. When he feels the Iranians on the street want something and the president is supporting them, he [Khamenei] realises that it is not in the interest of the system to oppose the trend," Nourizada said.

Analysts expect final results after a run-off next week.