Region | Iran
Iranian nuclear programme for defence or attack?
While Iran grapples with Western powers over its nuclear programme, analysts in Iran are coming up with divergent scenarios of the situation and its possible repercussions.
- By Jumana Al Tamimi, GCC & Middle East Editor
- Published: 00:22 March 28, 2008
- An Iraqi helicopter captured during the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88) on display at a military museum, part of the Sa'ad Abad Cultural Complex in northern Tehran.
- Image Credit: AP
Tehran: While Iran grapples with Western powers over its nuclear programme, analysts in Iran are coming up with divergent scenarios of the situation and its possible repercussions.
Their perspectives range between expecting an attack on Iran, accusing the West of arrogance, and blaming the "hostile" tone of the Iranian government for fuelling the tension towards the West.
"It is a right for every member of NPT [Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty] to have access to nuclear technology for peaceful purposes," said political science professor Herimidas Bovand.
"But as I said, they [the West] usually focus on Iranian intentions, and unfortunately enough, [President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad and some other individuals in higher positions make statements hostile to Western powers and Israel. The West uses these kind of statements to substantiate claims and accusations against Iran," he added in reference to the belligerent statements made by the Iranian president against the West and Israel, including questioning the reality of the Holocaust.
Iran, which has repeatedly said its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes, rejected offers to hold talks after suspending its programme, namely uranium enrichment. The West is concerned that Tehran has ambitions to develop nuclear weapons.
While efforts to ease tension over the programme in the international arena continue, Bovand and many other analysts in Tehran believe the West's military option "has been pushed into the shadows", following the release last year of a US intelligence agencies' report.
Last December's report said Iran had stopped working on a design for nuclear weapons in 2003. Although there is some evidence of a pause after the invasion of Iraq, some Western analysts believe the programme has resumed.
However, the recent resignation of US Chief of Central Command, Admiral William Fallon, has made other Iranian analysts more sceptical. Initial reports correlated the resignation with an increased possibility of an attack on Iran.
"It shows that the risk is going to be high," said reformist columnist Eisa Saharkhiz. He has been the target of legal action due to his views. The "situation is going to change, but nobody knows what is in their hands. The risk of the attack is 30-40 per cent," he added.
The reformist journalist blames not only the tone of the Iranian conservative-held government, but also "manner of the government" behind the tension with the West. Conservatives, on the other hand, are refusing the notion that their government's foreign policy has backfired.
"In general, it is an Iranian issue and nobody has the right to interfere in Iranian affairs even if they go to make weapons. But we are saying it is not the only right Iranians have... there are a lot of rights now, like freedom, free elections," said Saharkhiz. He said he advocates a temporary suspension for the programme to solve the tension and getting other countries' help.
The previous reformist government used a "passive language and tone" in its dealings with international policies, and the Western countries took advantage of that language, said Hamid Taraqi, member of the Conservative Coalition.
The West, "didn't pay attention to our rights. We have decided to choose a new language and tone in order to defend our rights. We have the right to to have nuclear energy because Israel, Pakistan, India and the US are developing nuclear weapons, but our nuclear activities are only peaceful," said Taraqi. "We are not going to change our tone and language," Taraqi concluded.
Conservative politicians say a negative perception of Iran abroad exists only in some governments, and not in people's minds. They also say Iran has the support of other Islamic nations. "When our president travels to Islamic and non-Islamic countries they show their eagerness and enthusiasm," said Taraqi, who was only 19 when he was imprisoned with late Iranian leader Ayatollah Khomeini, whose picture hangs in his office. "And the very interesting point is that when we travel to Arab countries they recoginse Iranians by the name of Ahmadinejad and they even like his jacket," he added.
Iran's priorities
For "geo-political reasons", the Iranian nuclear program seems a priority, noted analysts.
"Iran is surrounded from three sides by the US military," said Sayeed Laylaz, a prominent Iranian analyst. Amid American threats to attack Iran, "what can [spiritual leader] Ali Khameini do? He has to do something," Laylaz added.
Internally, however, some Iranian analysts believe there are other priorities, like freedoms. But, the conservative campaign accuses reformists of raising the freedom slogans after their failure to handle economic developments, announcing the nuclear programme is "very important for Iranians and national integrity".
Iran has been subjected to sanctions to force it to suspend uranium enrichment. However, economists and analysts describe the sanctions policy as "useless".
On the contrary, sanctions have benefitted the major oil producer, thanks to high oil prices.
While economists say if sanctions are useless without an oil embargo, they continued "it is also impossible to include oil, because this will make oil prices jump to $400 per barrel," noted Laylaz. Meanwhile, economic cooperation between Iran and Russia and China is flourishing.
Have your say
Do you think Iran's foreign policy has backfired? Do they have the right to nuclear technology? Will the US attack? Or are the Americans too battered by Iraq to attempt it? Tell us at letter2editor@gulfnews.com
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