Obama win makes Egyptians think aloud

Cairo: Like many people in this Arab world's most populous nation of 80 million, Hamada, a Cairo taxi driver, is pleased with Barack Obama's win as the first US black president.

"This is not only because his victory means an end to the disastrous presidency of [George W. Bush], but it is also because this win reflects the ability of the Americans to introduce genuine change in the rule of their country," Hamada, 38, told Gulf News.

Hamada, who refused to give his full name, is particularly impressed by Obama's youthful energy and emphasis on change.

"I hope one day we can have such a young, charismatic leader. There is a whole generation in Egypt who have seen only one president - Hosni Mubarak".

Mubarak, 81, has been in power for more than 27 years. He has never named a vice president, who traditionally takes over the top post. His sixth term ends in 2011, but Mubarak, an ex-Air Force officer, has not yet said he will seek a seventh term.

Speculation

Mubarak's critics claim he is grooming his younger son Jamal, 44, to succeed him. The Mubaraks have repeatedly denied claims of hereditary succession.

Still, earlier this week, Jamal, who heads the influential politics committee of the ruling National Democratic Party, refused to give a straightforward answer about his possible takeover from his father.

"Is there a country or a party that decides on its candidate for elections three years before they take place?" he said.

Egypt's next presidential election is due in 2011. The Egyptian constitution sets no limits on presidential terms.

"Article No 77 in the Egyptian constitution allows the president, whether good or bad, to keep his post for life," wrote Soliman Juda in the independent newspaper Al Masri Al Youm yesterday. "But [in the US], they have the right to vote every four years to keep or disqualify the president because four years is enough time for the electorate to decide whether the president deserves to keep his seat or go.

"This is the difference between a constitution that gives society there the chance to constantly rejuvenate itself and ours, which makes us stuck in our place."

In early 2005 Mubarak ordered the constitution amended to permit Egypt's first competitive presidential election. In September of that year, Mubarak swept the election.

Mubarak's outspoken critic Ayman Nour, now serving a five-year term in prison on charges of forgery, trailed a distant second in the 2005 election. Supporters of Nour, 45, claim his conviction is politically motivated.

"Obama's win, though a historic milestone, is unlikely to advance the cause of democracy in the Middle East," said Abdullah Al Senawi, the editor of the opposition newspaper Al Arabi.

"The young president will most probably focus on repairing the damage caused by his predecessor to the US economy," he told Gulf News.

"With his minimal experience in foreign policy, Obama is unlikely to put pressure on US allies in the Arab world to introduce real democratic changes. After all, this approach has backfired when applied by Bush."