Dubai: Turks headed to the polls to elect their president in the first direct ballot of its kind in the country on Sunday. Nearly 53 million were eligible to cast their votes.
The landmark elections are not only expected to give the newly elected president wider powers and lead to constitutional changes in the country, but also pave the way for a bigger and broader Turkish role in Arab issues, including attempts to bring a solution to the situation in neighbouring Iraq and Syria, as well as the Israeli–Palestinian conflict.
Current Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has indicated that he plans to revamp the president’s post to give it greater executive powers, which could see Turkey shift towards a system more like that of France if his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) succeeds in changing the constitution.
Initial reports from polling stations — a thin turnout was witnessed — indicated participation could be significantly lower than the 89 per cent seen in March’s local elections.
Opinion polls predict that Erdogan will easily win more than 50 per cent of votes to take Ankara’s Cankaya presidential palace in the first round, with his main opposition rival, the cerebral Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, lagging far behind.
“Our people will make an important decision for Turkish democracy,” said Erdogan as he cast his vote in Istanbul alongside his wife Emine and two daughters and two sons.
Analysts say that Erdogan, 60, has the best chance of winning over the other two candidates, diplomat Ihsanoglu and Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtas.
“I think it is almost certain that Erdogan will win the first round,” said Ahmet Uysal, Turkish political analyst at the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies at Marmara University, in a telephone interview with Gulf News.
To win the first round the candidate has to get above 50 per cent of the vote. Otherwise, a second round will be held on August 24.
Polls opened at 8am local time (05.00 GMT) and close at 5pm.
Erdogan has been prime minister since 2003 and cannot stand for the position again.
“Erdogan will be more open to the Arab world and he will be free of his government affairs and will play a more diplomatic role and more constructive role in the future, I think,” added Uysal.
Bridge between east and west
However, focusing on foreign relations and building stronger ties with Arab countries is not expected to be imminent, analysts said.
Other internal issues need to be handled first, including constitutional issues. The country follows a parliamentary system, but in now directly electing a president may be heading towards a semi-presidential system.
“I believe the focus, in the first period, will be on internal affairs,” said a well-informed political expert in Turkey who asked not to be named. The first period is expected to take until the second half of 2015, added the expert.
After the domestic political issues are settled, “focus on foreign affairs will be boosted,” he added. However, Turkish views on regional affairs won’t dramatically change, analysts said.
“Turkey is a non-Arab Muslim country and very much interested in what is going on in the region and everything happening in Iraq is affecting Turkey, such as Isil and other problems in Iraq, Syria and Palestine,” said Uysal.
“There is a possibility of reconsidering the strategy of allowing Syrian refugees in light of their increasing numbers [considering that] the burden of hosting them is growing,” said another analyst on condition of anonymity.
It is estimated that there are nearly 700,000 Syrian refugees in Turkey, 70 per cent of them live outside refugee camps.
While Turkey’s tense relations with Cairo, mainly because of its support for the Muslim Brotherhood in the region, is not expected to change in the near future, “Turkey was keen not to compete with Egypt on certain issues [recently], namely the Palestinian question and the situation in Gaza, in order not to affect negatively the general atmosphere and harm the Palestinian people,” one analyst said.
However, Turkish-Iranian relations (due to international economic sanctions against Iran) are expected to grow in light of Turkey’s ambitious economic plan for the next ten years where Turkey can serve as a corridor to western countries.
“Turkey is playing the role of bridge between east and west, north and south,” said Uysal.
“It can play the role of building some understanding how to fight terrorism, poverty and injustice,” in the region, he added.
— inputs from AFP