UAE | General
GCC should seek regional security strategy - book
GCC states must reinforce their ability to deter intervention in their affairs by large regional neighbours and extra-regional powers such as the US and the UK, according to a book published by a UAE think-tank.
- Staff Report
- Published: 00:04 July 17, 2008
Abu Dhabi: GCC states must reinforce their ability to deter intervention in their affairs by large regional neighbours and extra-regional powers such as the US and the UK, according to a book published by a UAE think-tank.
Of 21 countries in and around the Gulf, only 3 do not have any overt military presence.
The US has a presence in 13 of these countries, the UK in 9 and other external powers also have military presences in 9 countries, according to the book titled Arabian Gulf Security: Internal and External Challenges.
The common crises and challenges threatening the security of Gulf countries should be a catalyst for the formulation of a unified Gulf strategy in achieving regional stability and fortifying the national security of its states, suggests the book, based on papers presented at the Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research's 12th annual conference held in March last year.
"The intensification of the US military presence in the Gulf has put pressure on GCC member countries to 'cooperate' by offering extended facilities to US military components, access rights, over-flying rights and support for naval visits," according to the book, which predicts that the situation will not change soon.
The Gulf states, the book says, must recognise that their dependence on the US as a security umbrella and economic partner is a relatively minor part within larger US global security concerns.
The authors believe the foreign military presence in the GCC states is "an inescapable reality."
Iraq constitutes a new type of threat to the GCC countries, the authors argue, as it could become an inspiration and incubator for terrorist and extremist elements, such as Al Qaida. They could pose a threat to GCC states and their interests since the GCC states have allied themselves with the West, and in particular the US.
GCC countries also fear the development of a "Shiite Iraq" and an increase in sectarian warfare between Sunnis and Shiites in Iraq, which may spread to the Gulf societies.
The fear among the Gulf states of Iranian dominance has increased with the elimination of the "old" Iraq, which was considered a regional counter-balance to Iran, the authors say. "Iran's acquisition of nuclear technology, and its ability to enrich uranium could grant it dominance over the Gulf region."
The authors, however, warn that no country in the region or outside should foster the illusion that undermining Iranian ambitions, or even changing the political regime in Iran, will solve the security problems of the Gulf.
Many aspects of Iran's current and future capabilities are as uncertain as its current and future intentions. On the one hand, Iran is surrounded by strong external powers, many of whose intentions are equally unpredictable. These include the strong US military presence in the Gulf, Pakistan with its nuclear-arms, Turkey, Iraq and southern Gulf states that are individually weak but could become collectively strong.
Seen from this perspective, Iran has at least as much reason to think defensively as it does offensively. But at the same time, it is weak as an offensive military power compared to most of its neighbours and any combination of the United States and the Southern Gulf states.
The book also investigates the need to establish a coherent and permanent multilateral regional defense system in the region.
The fear among the Gulf states of Iranian dominance has increased with the elimination of the "old" Iraq, which was considered a regional counter-balance.
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