As'ad Abdul Rahman: Israel's weapons of mass destruction – a threat to peace

With between 200-500 thermonuclear warheads, Israel has supplanted Britain as the world's fifth largest nuclear power, and may even rival France and China in the size and sophistication of its arsenal.

Although dwarfed by the nuclear arsenals of both the United States and Russia, each possessing over 10,000 nuclear warheads, Israel nonetheless is a major nuclear power and should be recognised as such.

Although Iraq's primitive programme was much exaggerated and described as a threat to world peace (allegations proved completely baseless) Israel's arsenal is completely overlooked and ignored.

Israel's possession of a large nuclear, chemical and biological arsenal coupled with an aggressive policy for their actual use constituted the major regional impetus for the development of weapons of mass destruction and is an acute threat to peace and stability in the Middle East.

Nuclear opaqueness

Following the 1973 war, Israel intensified its nuclear programme while continuing its policy of deliberate "nuclear opaqueness". Until the mid 1980's, most intelligence estimates of the Israeli nuclear arsenal were bordering on two dozen warheads. The revelations of the Morocco-born Israeli scientist Mordechai Vanunu, a nuclear technician working at the Dimona plant, changed everything overnight.

Vanunu, a leftist by ideology, believed that it was his duty to humanity to expose Israel's nuclear programme to the world. He smuggled dozens of photos and valuable scientific data out of Israel and in 1986 his story was published in the London Sunday Times. The Vanunu revelations led to the disclosure that Israel possessed as many as 200 highly sophisticated thermonuclear bombs.

His information indicated that the Dimona reactor's capacity had been expanded considerably and that Israel was producing enough plutonium to make ten to twelve bombs a year. A senior US intelligence analyst said of the Vanunu data, "the scope of this is much more extensive than we thought. This is an enormous operation."

Producing WMDs is one thing, the ability to deliver them to their intended targets quite another. Israel possesses both capabilities. The highly capable and well-equipped Israeli Air Force, especially with US supplied aircraft such as F-15s and 16s, is more than capable of delivering nuclear weapons. Moreover, Israel has also produced ballistic missiles against which its potential enemies have no effective defence.

The Jericho I missile puts the whole of Syria within its range while Jericho II brings the entire Middle East, including Iran, under Israel's range. In addition, Israel's Shavit missile could be adapted as long-range nuclear delivery system and Israel's know-how is capable of developing an intercontinental ballistic missile that can hit targets far beyond the boundaries of the Middle East.

The Israeli navy acquired three Dolphin class submarines which are believed to have been modified to carry cruise-type missiles. It is almost certain now, that Israel also possesses a tactical nuclear capability, including small nuclear landmines and nuclear warheads that can be fired from conventional canons.

Israel's possession of an advanced nuclear arsenal has made the Jewish state all the more belligerent than otherwise would have been possible. In 1983, Sharon proposed to India that it join with Israel to attack Pakistan's nuclear facilities. And in the late 1970s he proposed sending Israel's paratroopers to Tehran to prop up the Shah whose regime was on the verge of collapsing.

According to Israel Shahak: "The wish for peace is not, in my view, a principle of Israeli policy, while the wish to extend Israeli domination and influence is. Israel must be prepared to go to war, nuclear if need be, for the sake of averting domestic change not to its liking, if it occurs in some or any Middle Eastern states ... Israel clearly prepares itself to seek hegemony over the entire Middle East."

No one dares to challenge Israel's monopoly on nuclear weapons in the region. Placing the issue of Israel's arsenal of such weapons directly and impartially would undoubtedly expose a primary destabilising factor and is compelling the countries in the region to each seek their own deterrent.

Moreover, such an impartial approach would expose the double standards of the US and Europe on the one hand condemning Iraq, Iran and Syria for developing WMDs while overlooking the principal culprit.

The Israeli nuclear programme represents a serious impediment to nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation and is a potential threat. All nations concerned about a just peace in the Middle East and nuclear disarmament must speak out forcefully against the Israeli nuclear programme.

Skirting scrutiny

No country in the Middle East has more WMDs than Israel, and no other country in the world has escaped as much scrutiny of its nuclear arsenal as Israel.

Finally, a nuclear-free Israel would make a nuclear-free Middle East, and a comprehensive regional peace agreement, more likely. Unless and until the international community confronts Israel over its covert nuclear programme, it is unlikely that there will be any just solution of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Professor As'ad Abdul Rahman is the Chairman of the Palestinian Encyclopaedia