Region: Arab world's future lies in its own hands

If the present is pregnant with the future, as Voltaire said, Arab analysts and sociologists, who were asked by Gulf News to forecast the future of the Arab world in 2010, are pessimistic about what the future holds in store for the Arab region. The justification is: The bleak present will give birth to a bleak future.

Dr Omar Abdul Aziz, a Yemeni analyst and head of the Research Section at the Sharjah Department of Culture and Information, is, however, optimistic. He believes that the future will be better than the present simply because things cannot get worse than they are at present.

On the Yemen issue, Dr Aziz believes that both the government and opposition must work together to preserve the integrity of the country.

"Would such a voice of wisdom succeed in stopping the dialogue of fire in Yemen? I hope so because I am sure that the conflict cannot go forever without a political solution. 2010 might be the year that all sides get back to realism and rationalism," he said.

"The most significant incident in 2009 was the bloody confrontation in Sa'ada," Dr Aziz said. "Al Qaida is also trying to benefit from the chaotic situation by regrouping its forces to pose a threat not only in Yemen, but in the whole region and the world.

"The picture at the end of the 2009 can be described as the Yemeni government facing three major challenges at once, with a single one enough to de-stabilise the whole country."

The other problem in the Arab world lies is the way leaders see reforms.

"Most Arab leaders consider reforms as a tactical tool to preserve their grip on power rather than as a necessity to meet the national challenges. This is manifested in Yemen and other countries — even those with multiparty political systems — that allow little freedom of press," Dr Aziz said.

He believes there is no military solution in Yemen.

Radicalism

Ayman Abdul Nour, Syrian Political Analyst and Editor-in-Chief of all4syria.org, is sure that the Arab region is tilting towards radicalism that will influence decision-making in the region. It will also influence international foreign policy on the region.

"In my opinion, 2010 will be a very important year in the history of the region because the US administration will take a decisive stand. The US will be forced to take action or to allow the region to sink into chaos."

In Egypt, Nour said, President Hosni Mubarak has to decide whether to transfer power or keep it for himself. Sudan also faces serious challenges in its preparation for presidential, parliamentarian and regional elections and the referendum of the secession of the south.

Nour sees an end to the Iran-Israel war of words. "Israel will either accept Iran's nuclear programme or launch a strike against it that would plunge the region into more instability and chaos. The current standstill situation cannot continue forever and 2010 will be the year of taking a clear stand."

Lowest point

Marah Bukai, head of the Washington-based Al Waref Institute and professor of Contemporary Islam at the Georgetown University, Centre for Continuing and Professional Education, agrees with Dr Aziz's statement about the chaotic situation in the Arab world but disagrees that Arabs have reached their lowest point.

"At the beginning of the millennium, we thought that the establishment of a sort of democracy in Iraq and the removal of Saddam Hussain would help in fostering democracy in the Arab world, but this did not happen and will never happen in the foreseeable future because the West led by the US have dropped such objectives from its political agenda," she said.

Bukai does not agree to the imposition of democracy by an outside force because she believes in democracy that is woven from within to reflect the fabric of the society.

Bukai says that Iran and extremist forces have fostered strong alliances with local dictatorships in the Arab world to prevent a regional transformation toward democracy.

Lenient approach

"Unfortunately, the current US administration seems lenient with Iran and its allies. The US is not only allowing Iran to de-stabilise the peace in the Gulf region, but in Iraq itself, the country that was meant to become the US model of democracy in the Arab world," she says.

Salwa Al Lubani, a sociologist and in-charge of Al Karmah Educational and Cultural Programme in Egypt, also does not share Dr Aziz's optimism.

Lubani believes that people have lost interest in who is ruling them and how they are ruled. "People's main interest lies in meeting their daily needs of food and other basic necessities. According to recent credible studies, 40 per cent of Arabs are below the poverty line.

Lubani says, "People I meet daily have no time for education and reading. They don't have interest in how the president is elected. They have no plans for the future," she said.

She says development requires education and no one in the Arab world seems interested in investing in the field of knowledge.