There is grave danger in trying to negotiate with Daesh (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) because the terrorists’ motives are not clear, other than a desire for publicity. No one really knows what strategic advantage they are looking for, although all they may want is to manufacture a small split in the international coalition by getting one partner to negotiate with them directly. Daesh’s capture of Jordanian air force pilot Muath Al Kaseasbeh gave it an extraordinary opportunity to create mischief. The Jordanians were in a terrible position as they naturally wanted to get their man back alive and Daesh was bright enough to seek the release of Sajida Al Rishawi, the would-be hotel bomber in an attack that killed about 60 people in 2005 at a hotel in Amman. Al Rishawi is of no great consequence to Daesh, but her release may give the group increased standing in the terrorist community.
The ongoing drama over what will happen to Al Kaseasbeh leaves his fate and that of other captives, like Japanese journalist Kenji Goto, uncertain, even if the Japanese say that his release has been linked to that of Al Rishawi by the Jordanians. It is also important to remember that Daesh has hundreds of other captives from assorted local communities that they have overrun, but who carry less international fame and consequently have less value for ransom if Daesh puts their lives on the line.
The ransoming of prisoners is a small part of the group’s overall strategy to win power in the region, both by taking territorial control but more importantly, by exercising fear over wide swathes of the population by their use of gross and targeted violence. In this, Daesh has been successful in the short term, but such a destructive tactic cannot bring long-term success and will only succeed in alienating the unfortunate populations over which Daesh currently has control. The international response to Daesh has been tough military action to degrade and overwhelm the group’s positions, coordinating this with a political response that is designed to attract the loyalty of those who were disenfranchised by the national governments and rebuild the nation states that have been challenged by Daesh. This has to remain the main priority.
