Business | Opinion
Worldly Wise: Explore sustainable transport solutions
2011 was a year when we were able to witness and become aware of major geopolitical changes and economic disturbances
- Pierre Gadonneix
- Published: 00:00 January 17, 2012
2011 was a year when we were able to witness and become aware of major geopolitical changes and economic disturbances. But, it was also a year when very discreet yet dramatic changes took place, the world's population turned seven billion. In 40 years, our planet will be inhabited by nine billion, with two out of every three people living in cities. This accelerating urbanisation creates unparalleled challenges for governments.
The World Energy Council (WEC), in its ‘Global Transport Scenarios 2050' report, envisions that total fuel demand in all transport modes could grow by up to 88 per cent by 2050, depending on the level of government intervention.
Two scenarios
The study is based on two global transport scenarios — the ‘Freeway' and the ‘Tollway' — which describe potential developments in transport fuels, technologies, and systems over the course of the next four decades.
The ‘Freeway' scenario envisages a world where pure market forces prevail to create a climate for open global competition. The ‘Tollway' scenario describes a world where governments intervene, setting a framework for industry leaders to take action, in order to promote technology solutions and infrastructure development.
The two scenarios represent the extreme ends of potential future development and it is likely that the truth will be somewhere in the middle. Together, however, they reveal some interesting trends.
The study shows that transport fuel demand in the next 40 years will come mainly from developing countries such as China and India, where demand will grow by a staggering 200 per cent to 300 per cent, surpassing the demand in developed countries as soon as 2025.
In contrast, the transport fuel demand from developed countries will drop by up to 20 per cent, mainly due to increased efficiencies.
The total number of cars in the world will increase from 2.2 times (Tollway) to 2.6 times (Freeway), mainly in the developing world, where the Western way of life and idea of comfort is spreading and where people tend to catch up with it.
Developed countries, on the other hand, will see an increase of only 36 per cent (Tollway) to 41 per cent (Freeway).
The consequences are significant. In 2010, CO2 emissions from the transport sector were about 23 per cent of global CO2 emission levels and emissions from cars were about 41 per cent of total transport. With the higher levels of transport demand in 2050, and depending on the fuel mix, total CO2 emissions from the transportation sector are expected to increase up to 79 per cent if governments fail to propose and promote more sustainable transport solutions.
We urgently need to develop infrastructure and technologies to reduce the negative impacts of transport. We can no longer wait to take action against climate change, for fear of being caught in the "locked in effect".
This will require huge investments and renewed governance, with two challenges: to set up a long-term vision and, in the long run, an implicit price of CO2. Such an approach will contribute to the three goals of a national energy and climate policy, the "Energy Trilemma"; energy security to allow economic growth, protection of the environment and climate, and lastly, acceptance of all energies and infrastructure to enhance social equity.
Governments need to take steps to invoke policy that provides sufficient sustainable transportation for the world's burgeoning population. Tackling this challenge is crucial as our quality of life in 2050 will ultimately be determined by decisions and strategies created and enacted today.
The writer is chairman of the World Energy Council and Honorary Chairman, Electricité de France (EDF).
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