GCC Focus: Generating jobs is a regional priority

Chances are the unemployment challenge will remain a serious issue in Arab countries at large for years to come. The not-so optimistic outlook is based on some hard data, notably demographic statistics.

Recently-released figures indicate jobless rates in Arab countries collectively rising from 14 per cent in 2008 to 14.8 per cent by year-end 2009. The Arab League comprises 22 members including Palestine but the above mentioned unemployment statistics exclude Palestinian territories due to lack of reliable information.

Disproportionate scale

Needless to say, Arab countries face different economic realities, hence the big variance in jobless rates. The jobless rates in Arab countries range between 0.3 per cent in Qatar to 50 per cent in Djibouti. However, jobless rates are relatively high in several other Arab countries including Egypt and Lebanon. In fact, these two countries are noted for having a sizable number of their citizens working abroad and supporting their local economies through remittances.

The number of jobless Arabs stands at 14 million, in turn comprising about 7 per cent of total unemployed worldwide, undoubtedly a sizable representation. Conversely, Arabs make up less than 6 per cent of the global population.

The rise in the unemployment rate in 2009 is all but surprising since it was the first full year in the wake of the global financial crisis. The jobless figure for 2010 would have to be lower even if dictated by the return of confidence to global economies, Arab countries not excluded. Returning confidence is partly evidenced in changing oil prices, which stood at around $35 per barrel in the first quarter of 2009, only to more than double in the same period in 2010.

Still, there is the issue of underemployment in many Arab countries, as some graduates tend to accept employment opportunities not commensurate with their qualifications. And there is the case of disguised unemployment, a reference to those who are partially employed or only working for a few hours each day.

Clearly, the unemployment challenge in Arab countries is much worse than the statistics suggest by taking into account the underemployed.

Again, there is the issue of a sizable number of women giving up the desire for work in order to focus on their households. Limited job opportunities that suit this category partly explains the decision of some women to drop out of the workforce. Undoubtedly, the society as a whole suffers when female graduates, equipped with the latest educational qualifications, are unable to find proper jobs.

Moreover, the unemployment issue in Arab countries faces critical demographic realities, notably including a population growth rate of 2.3 per cent. The combined population of Arab countries could reach as high as 500 million by 2025 from the current level of around 350 million.

To be sure, available statistics indicate that the workforce comprises merely 42 per cent of Arab populations as a whole, but this figure is bound to change in the future in light of changing demographics. By comparison, active workers make up more than half of the total population in numerous Western countries.

Available statistics indicate that about one-third of Arab subjects are below 15 years of age, suggesting a sizable number of them are bound to enter the job market in coming years searching for jobs meeting their expectations. Yet the big majority in the remaining two-thirds of the population fall in the active employment age bracket of 15 to 65, with a small percentage falling in the over-65 category.

Taking all aspects into consideration, the unemployment issue carries with it socio-political costs, something highlighted by leadership roles played by the unemployed in protests taking place in numerous Arab countries. This fact has been driven home in Tunisia, Egypt and more recently in Bahrain. 

The writer is a Member of Parliament in Bahrain.