Crude likely to fall as consumption drops

New York: Crude oil may fall this week as imports increase and US refiners operate at below-average rates, bolstering inventories.

Fifteen of 28 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 54 per cent, said prices will drop through April 18. Eleven of the respondents, or 39 per cent, said futures will rise and two forecast that prices will be little changed.

A week ago, 47 per cent said oil would decline.

Crude-oil supplies fell 3.15 million barrels to 316 million a week ago as imports plunged, an Energy Department report showed on April 9.

Imports fell 13 per cent to 8.91 million barrels a day during the week. The Houston Ship Channel, which serves the largest US petroleum port, was shut because of fog on April 2. Prices should "fall (this) week as we expect to see an upward correction in the US crude-oil stocks linked to the fog delays," said Oliver Jakob, managing director of Petromatrix GmbH in Zug, Switzerland.

Refineries operated at 83 per cent of capacity last week, down from 88.4 per cent a year earlier, the department said.

Crude oil for May delivery fell $4.35, or 4.1 per cent, to $109.64 a barrel last week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures reached $112.21 a barrel on April 9, the highest since trading began in 1983.

This is the 14th straight week that analysts have forecast a decline in prices. The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of prices 50 per cent of the time since its introduction in April 2004.