Business | Markets
Russia will not be able to export more than 4.5m tonnes of grain
Moscow will not have stocks available to export after ban expires
- Reuters
- Published: 00:00 August 13, 2010
Taganrog : Drought-hit Russia may export no more than 4.5 million tonnes of grain in the 2010/11 crop year, and may have no grain available to export after a ban expires on December 31, Agriculture Ministry data showed on yesterday.
"With a crop of 60-65 million tonnes exports may be 2.0-4.5 million tonnes," the ministry said in a presentation.
It said that Russia may export 2.8 million tonnes of grain, including 1.6 million tonnes in July and the remainder until August 15 when the ban it imposed on grain exports to December 31 becomes effective.
This indicates that under a worst-case scenario the former No. 3 wheat exporter may have no grain available for exports from August 15. The 2010/11 crop year started on July 1.
Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on Monday the ban on grain exports might be extended beyond December 31, as a fall in this year's crop could be worse than expected due to a severe drought.
Putin said that Russia was expected to have a supply of 90 million tonnes, which included 60 million tonnes of output, 21 million tonnes of carryover stocks and 9.5 million tonnes of the government intervention stocks.
He said this was sufficient to cover Russia's estimated domestic consumption this year of 78 million tonnes.
However, the country's carryover stocks, estimated between 21.7 million and 24 million tonnes as of July 1 already include 9.5 million tonnes of the government's intervention stocks, according to analysts and producers.
Carryover stocks
That means that Russia's grain supply this year could be as low as 81.7-84 million tonnes which leaves a surplus of only 3.7-6.0 million tonnes — not enough for carryover stocks and allowing practically no new exports.
The drought-reduced wheat crop in Russia will give the US the chance to sell some of its mounting wheat surplus, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said on Wednesday.
French analyst Strategie Grains yesterday sharply raised its forecasts for soft wheat exports from the European Union and the US this season following an export ban by drought-hit rival exporter Russia.
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